Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 05 2024 08:31:22 ACUS03 KWNS 050831 SWODY3 SPC AC 050830 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat. ....Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex... An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low 60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level moisture return across northern OK and southern KS. Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be more than sufficient for supercells. The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated. ...Gleason.. 03/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .