Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Mar 05 2024 06:01:51 ACUS01 KWNS 050601 SWODY1 SPC AC 050600 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TX/OK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible through the day across parts of east Texas/Oklahoma into the lower Mississippi Valley. Hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ....East TX/OK into the lower MS Valley... Convection will likely be ongoing during the morning somewhere from east TX into the ArkLaTex region, though uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of this convection during the overnight hours prior to the start of the forecast period. In general, one or more clusters may develop and move southeastward through the morning. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear could support some storm organization, though instability may remain limited near the lower MS Valley due to the influence of extensive convection on Monday, and increasing overnight convection over the Gulf of Mexico. Some threat for damaging gusts and perhaps some hail could accompany the morning storms if organized convection can be sustained. Most guidance suggests severe potential will wane across the region in the wake of the morning convection. However, depending on the strength and extent of convective outflow, moderate destabilization may be possible during the afternoon from east TX/OK into portions of AR/LA. While large-scale ascent will be weak in the wake of a shortwave trough associated with the morning convection, isolated redevelopment cannot be ruled out along any remnant outflow boundary. Should this occur, MLCAPE potentially in excess of 1500 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could be sufficient to support an isolated hail and damaging wind threat with any sustained afternoon/evening storms. ....Florida... Most guidance suggests that an MCS will develop over the Gulf of Mexico and move eastward through the day. Guidance also suggests that the MCS (or its remnant) will not reach the FL Peninsula until later in the evening, though there is some potential it will progress eastward faster than expected. In advance of the MCS, isolated to widely scattered storm development will be possible over the Peninsula as low-level moisture gradually increases. With instability expected to remain rather weak, severe potential appears relatively limited with both the MCS and any earlier convection. However, with modestly favorable low-level and deep-layer shear potentially overspreading parts of the Peninsula, the severe potential will continue to be monitored in subsequent outlooks. ....OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes... Scattered convection will be possible through the day from parts of the OH Valley into the lower Great Lakes, in association with a cold front. Large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow/shear is expected to be rather weak, since the region is located between a departing northern-stream shortwave trough, and the southern-stream system affecting the Gulf Coast states. Modest preconvective heating and cool temperatures aloft could support gusty winds and small hail with the strongest storms, though the organized severe-thunderstorm threat appears limited. ...Dean/Weinman.. 03/05/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .