Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0188
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Mar 04 2024 17:34:50

ACUS11 KWNS 041734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041734=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-TXZ000-041930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CST Mon Mar 04 2024

Areas affected...far east TX into LA and southwest MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 041734Z - 041930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
through the afternoon. Hail (a few instances near 1 inch diameter)
and gusty winds (to 50 mph) may accompany this activity.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in
coverage/intensity over the next few hours from far east TX into
much of LA. Surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s to near 70 F
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates are fostering MLCAPE generally
around 1500 J/kg at midday. Meanwhile, 0-6 km effective shear
magnitudes around 30-35 kt will be marginally favorable for
supercells. Already a few cells across LA have shown transient, weak
rotation. This environment will mainly support isolated hail (a few
instances of near 1 inch diameter) and gusty winds (to 50 mph).

Vertically veering low-level flow will support some potential for
low-level rotation, and regional VWP data shows favorably curved
(albeit small) low-level hodographs. Generally weak low-level winds
and a lack of well-defined surface boundaries will likely limit
tornado potential.=20

Given the expected transient and isolated nature of any stronger,
well-organized cells, a watch is not expected at this time.

...Leitman/Hart.. 03/04/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7NZm5erOpJG_gA5oxmRDoADMzl4LbI9k1P29HayGcbEXEa6UEB_5V-gihCkCfqfPas43JcEZF=
GVT7n71HslH1WaeW1M$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   31599450 32109443 32599403 32749353 32689248 31339083
            29828929 29428933 29378996 29899154 30319276 30589356
            31109424 31599450=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.