Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 03 2024 13:01:09 ACUS01 KWNS 031301 SWODY1 SPC AC 031259 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur. ....Synopsis... A broad area of cyclonic flow aloft will continue to envelop much of the western 2/3 of the country today, while ridging prevails over the East. The exception will be a weak southern-stream short-wave trough, that will shift across Florida today. At the surface, a baroclinic zone lying from the upper Mississippi Valley area southwestward across the central Plains, and then westward across the Intermountain West will make little progress today, while high pressure prevails in the East. ....Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across portions of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula, with additional/more widespread convection offshore. The convection is occurring near and south of a weak surface boundary, in tandem with the southern-stream short-wave trough that will continue to move slowly eastward across the Peninsula today. A moist airmass remains in place south of the northern Florida surface boundary. This, combined with relatively cool mid-levels associated with the short-wave trough, will allow 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to evolve through this afternoon. Weak surface winds in the warm sector suggest inland penetration of both sea-breeze boundaries, which will support scattered thunderstorm development inland later today. While deep-layer shear will remain marginal for well-organized storms, hail will be possible with a stronger storm or two, aided by the cool air aloft. Storms should gradually diminish inland, this evening. ...Goss/Broyles.. 03/03/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .