Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Mar 03 2024 09:40:09 ACUS48 KWNS 030940 SWOD48 SPC AC 030938 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ....DISCUSSION... An upper trough should move quickly eastward across FL and the East Coast up to the Mid-Atlantic on Day 4/Wednesday. While sufficient moisture to support thunderstorms will likely be in place to support thunderstorms across these areas, limited instability should tend to keep any severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Attention then turns to another upper trough/low that is forecast to advance from the eastern Pacific across the Southwest and southern Plains from the middle to latter portion of the upcoming week. Lee cyclogenesis is expected to occur ahead of this feature across the southern High Plains, and corresponding low-level mass response should encourage low-level moisture to advance northward across parts of OK/TX into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Severe potential may gradually increase across parts of OK/TX around Day 5/Thursday, as sufficient shear and instability should be present to support some risk for organized convection. This severe threat will probably continue into Day 6/Friday across parts of central/east TX into the lower MS Valley as the upper trough ejects eastward over these areas. By Day 7/Saturday, uncertainty increases regarding the evolution of the upper trough, as well as potential for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and related warm sector. But, some severe threat may persist across parts of the Southeast ahead of an advancing cold front. While confidence is not high enough to include 15% severe areas for Thursday (OK/TX), Friday (southern Plains into lower MS Valley), and/or Saturday (Southeast) at this time, deterministic and ensemble model trends will be closely monitored for signs of increasing severe potential with this ejecting upper trough. ...Gleason.. 03/03/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .