Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Mar 03 2024 05:57:36

ACUS01 KWNS 030557
SWODY1
SPC AC 030555

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES

....SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of Florida
during the afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail is expected to
be the primary threat, though locally gusty winds may also occur.

....Synopsis...
A deep upper-level trough will persist over the western CONUS
through the period, as a strong embedded shortwave moves from the
central High Plains toward the upper Great Lakes region. A surface
low attendant to this shortwave will move northward across the
Dakotas and Minnesota, with secondary cyclogenesis expected over the
central High Plains during the afternoon/evening. Farther east, a
weak upper-level trough will move slowly eastward across parts of
the Southeast, to the south of a building upper ridge across the Mid
Atlantic/Northeast.

....Florida...
Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) will likely develop
during the afternoon across much of the FL Peninsula, resulting from
seasonably strong diurnal heating of a relatively moist low-level
environment. Diminishing MLCINH will support scattered thunderstorm
development, especially in association with sea-breeze circulations
and possibly near any other boundaries left over from
overnight/early-morning convection.

Very weak low-level flow and only modest deep-layer flow/shear will
tend to limit storm organization and longevity, but storm
interactions and locally enhanced shear near the sea breezes could
yield a couple stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell.
With relatively cold temperatures aloft (-13C to -16C at 500 mb)
associated with the upper trough, the strongest storms could pose an
isolated hail threat. Locally gusty winds will also be possible,
though the severe-wind threat appears relatively limited due to very
weak low-level flow and limited potential for organized upscale
growth.

...Dean/Weinman.. 03/03/2024

$$

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