Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0184
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 02 2024 21:17:34

ACUS11 KWNS 022117
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022116=20
CAZ000-030215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2024

Areas affected...portions of the higher terrain of the central
Sierra Nevada

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 022116Z - 030215Z

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in heavy snowfall rates is anticipated
heading into the late afternoon/evening hours within the higher
terrain of the central Sierra Nevada range in California. Snowfall
rates of 2-3 inches/hour appear possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations and regional radar composites have
recently shown a temporary lull in precipitation/snowfall rates
along the higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada over the past hour.
However, recent RAP upper air analyses and GOES water-vapor imagery
indicate that the nose of a 100+ knot mid-level jet is beginning to
push into central CA. Broadscale ascent within the left-exit region
of this wave, combined with an increase in orographic ascent along
the Sierra Nevada owing to strengthening mid-level winds, should
promote a gradual uptick in precipitation across central CA late
this afternoon into the evening hours. Recent high-res guidance
indicates multiple rounds of heavier precipitation bands moving into
the region during the 23-03 UTC time frame as ascent increases. Both
deterministic and probabilistic guidance suggest that the potential
for snowfall rates between 2-3 inches/hour will increase during this
period for higher elevations (generally above 5 kft) where
temperatures are below freezing.

...Moore.. 03/02/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8wGIWSt_8c4LvnC1tYuk5dtKPnaIuvY-8mHU9kBsU25H6hRQFnftaEY6UK3oeTMIwcciNK0FQ=
YXsEYO6T3z13aCJId0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON   36741877 37071933 38652051 38872057 39072040 39112017
            38952003 38631982 38221940 37911914 37651895 37481864
            37341848 37171837 36971833 36771829 36681841 36661854
            36741877=20


=3D =3D =3D
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