Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 02 2024 08:29:30 ACUS03 KWNS 020829 SWODY3 SPC AC 020828 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CST Sat Mar 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ARKLATEX VICINITY INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible from the ArkLaTex vicinity into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley region on Monday. ....Synopsis... While a strong upper-level trough will move northward into Canada, broad troughing will remain across the south-central CONUS. A subtle, southern stream shortwave trough will move into the Sabine Valley and into the Southeast by the afternoon. A surface low in Oklahoma/Kansas will weaken during the day and a cold front will gradually sag southward toward the ArkLaTex by early Tuesday. A dryline is forecast to extent from south-central Oklahoma into parts of central Texas. ....ArkLaTex into the lower Mississippi Valley... Continued moistening at low levels through Monday evening and into Tuesday will lead weakened capping in the Sabine River vicinity Tuesday morning. As the subtle wave moves through, a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and move eastward. Despite strong enough shear for storm organization, storm interactions may lead to a messy mode. Steep mid-level lapse rates and long hodographs will promote large hail in the strongest storms. Damaging winds also may occur. Storms will eventually encounter drier air to the east and weaken. Capping will be stronger into southeast Oklahoma into Arkansas. Storm development is less certain in these areas. There is a conditional risk for a more supercellular mode should storms develop near the cold font/dryline intersection. These storms would pose a greater hail risk given favorable mode as well as greater instability/buoyancy. During the evening, the cold front will push southward. Storms may develop along the front. Deep-layer shear will be parallel to the front and a linear mode would be expected. Furthermore, there may be some tendency for storms to become elevated behind the boundary. Even so, initial updrafts would be capable of large hail and perhaps an isolated strong/damaging gust. ...Wendt.. 03/02/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .