Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 02 2024 07:34:08

FOUS30 KWBC 020734
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EST Sat Mar 02 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 02 2024 - 12Z Sun Mar 03 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 03 2024 - 12Z Mon Mar 04 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Hurley

Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 04 2024 - 12Z Tue Mar 05 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

Elongated southern stream jet streak expanding along the
U.S.-Mexican border will allow shortwave energy to spread into the
Lower MS Valley and Central Gulf Coast region late Monday into
Monday night. Favorable left-exit region upper forcing ahead of
the main shortwave trough (upper divergence, deep-layer ascent,
and increasing southerly low-level flow off the Gulf of Mexico)
will allow for a quick surge in low-mid level theta-e/moisture
transport into the outlook area by Monday night, though at this
point per the ensembles, the 850 mb wind and moisture flux
standard anomalies are barely 1 standard deviation above normal
for early March through the Day 3 period (12Z Tue). Nevertheless,
the favorable synoptic setup with PWs climbing to ~1.75" and
MUCAPEs to ~1000+ J/Kg (highest along and off the Gulf Coast) will
favor widespread development of showers and thunderstorms, with
localized heavier rainfall rates of 2-3 inches within 2-3 hours
possible in areas where quasi-linear segments off the Gulf can
train for a while. This scenario could pose an isolated flash
flood risk, mainly across urban and other poor-drainage areas. As
a result, the Marginal Risk from yesterday's Day 4 ERO was carried
over into today's Day 3 outlook, albeit truncated quite a bit
given the lack of deep-layer instability farther north from the
Gulf Coast.

Hurley


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6do8AwmfEUMKbDQU9GmPnwk7srj1JqS9XOBDh6jP8UrA=
-1bhprIQVnvv4WhOGrXi1OgLGxbcT3T0qiqwFpFbQee7lPg$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6do8AwmfEUMKbDQU9GmPnwk7srj1JqS9XOBDh6jP8UrA=
-1bhprIQVnvv4WhOGrXi1OgLGxbcT3T0qiqwFpFbLqcnpqs$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6do8AwmfEUMKbDQU9GmPnwk7srj1JqS9XOBDh6jP8UrA=
-1bhprIQVnvv4WhOGrXi1OgLGxbcT3T0qiqwFpFb_gzXD44$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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