Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Mar 02 2024 05:31:00 ACUS01 KWNS 020530 SWODY1 SPC AC 020529 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through early Sunday morning. ....Northern FL Peninsula and vicinity... A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move through broad cyclonic flow and approach the FL Peninsula during the afternoon. Ascent attendant to this feature will aid diurnal thunderstorm development from far south GA into the northern FL Peninsula, along/south of a weak surface boundary. Generally weak instability and only modest deep-layer shear should tend to limit the severe risk, but a strong storm or two capable of small hail and gusty winds will be possible, especially in areas where greater pre-convective warming can occur through the day. ....Parts of the Great Basin into the northern Rockies... A deep mid/upper-level trough will continue moving eastward across the western CONUS through the day. A surface low initially over eastern WA is forecast to move eastward toward the northern High Plains by evening. A strong cold front attendant to this low will move across the Great Basin and northern Rockies through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft (-25C to -30C at 500 mb), and favorable ascent will support development of one or more bands of low-topped convection along the front as it moves eastward. This frontal convection will pose a threat of at least sporadic lightning flashes from parts of NV into UT/WY and southeast ID, accompanied by strong wind gusts and potential snow-squall conditions. ...Dean/Weinman.. 03/02/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .