Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Mar 02 2024 01:09:05

FOUS30 KWBC 020108
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
808 PM EST Fri Mar 01 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Sat Mar 02 2024 - 12Z Sat Mar 02 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Near the AL/GA border...
A shortwave evident on water vapor imagery has been luring
500-1000 J/kg MU CAPE into a fairly sharp 850 hPa boundary,
leading to a couple hours of heavy rainfall across portions of
central AL.  Local amounts of near or above 2" have been indicated
on portions of radar estimates with high correlation coefficient
and surface observations.  Flash flood guidance values are quite
high, 3"+ in three hours, as the area has seen well below normal
rainfall over the past couple weeks.  With the guidance indicating
some weakening of the 850 hPa boundary with time, and the mobile
shortwave limiting areas of cell training, left the graphic blank.
 Very isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out, though believe
the chance of such in a neighborhood probability sense is under 5
percent.

SC coastal plain...
Active showers and thunderstorms have been seen in the vicinity of
a coastal front across portions of SC.  The mesoscale guidance has
been indicating heavy rainfall near Charleston, with the 12z HREF
indicating that we're nearly midway through its threat of 0.5"+ an
hour, which was extended farther into the night in the 18z HREF
probabilities.  MU CAPE has been low enough -- just over 100 J/kg
-- to generally keep hourly rain totals under 1" and local amounts
up to 2".  Flash flood guidance is also high in this area 3"+ in
three hours, as the region has seen well below normal rainfall
over the past couple weeks.  With convective activity showing no
real organization, decided to maintain continuity with no Marginal
Risk area depicted.  Very isolated longer duration or flash
flooding cannot be ruled out, though believe the chance of such in
a neighborhood probability sense is under 5 percent.

Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 02 2024 - 12Z Sun Mar 03 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 03 2024 - 12Z Mon Mar 04 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ET2FBnkycvwBrj2r9VLstVeFn3xLtWf-jV-GY9OieFn=
jugwR_Z-13E9JCykD9H3yNd2E5hn9R2wao2TMtwwV1QuRiw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ET2FBnkycvwBrj2r9VLstVeFn3xLtWf-jV-GY9OieFn=
jugwR_Z-13E9JCykD9H3yNd2E5hn9R2wao2TMtwwZbHbBgo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!9ET2FBnkycvwBrj2r9VLstVeFn3xLtWf-jV-GY9OieFn=
jugwR_Z-13E9JCykD9H3yNd2E5hn9R2wao2TMtwwCM4959w$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.