Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Mar 01 2024 19:54:58

ACUS01 KWNS 011954
SWODY1
SPC AC 011953

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 PM CST Fri Mar 01 2024

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are
most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West
Coast.

....20Z Update...
No changes needed to the previous forecast.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening
across the Southeast states as a shortwave trough continues to move
eastward through the Lower/Mid MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys.
Overall storm intensity will remain limited by scant buoyancy.

Isolated lightning flashes are expected to continue throughout the
period from the coastal Pacific Northwest into the CA Central
Valley. A few flashes remain possible across ID as well.

...Mosier.. 03/01/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Fri Mar 01 2024/

....Southeast...
A progressive upper trough will track across the OH Valley and Great
Lakes regions today, with the associated surface cold front sweeping
eastward across the Gulf Coast states.  Scattered thunderstorms will
occur ahead of the front through the day and into tonight.  There is
some potential for a more robust storm or two this afternoon and
evening from southeast LA into the FL panhandle, where a marginally
unstable surface air mass spreads onshore.  However, current
indications are that storms will remain below severe limits.

....Northwestern States..
Other isolated thunderstorms are expected through the forecast
period along the Pacific Northwest Coast and coastal ranges and
strong onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft enhance the
convective threat.  Finally, a few thunderstorms may occur over
portions of ID as an upper trough digs into the western states.  No
severe storms are expected in either of these regions.

$$

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