Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Mar 01 2024 05:30:52 ACUS01 KWNS 010530 SWODY1 SPC AC 010529 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. Scattered storms are most likely over the Southeast, and along northern parts of the West Coast. ....Synopsis... A shortwave trough will lose amplitude today as it moves from the lower/mid MS Valley toward the lower Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday. A belt of 40-50 kt westerlies will exist during the afternoon from the Gulf of Mexico to the TN Valley, with a gradually weakening gradient thereafter. At the surface, a prominent high will be centered over the Mid Atlantic, moving slowly east and providing strong easterly surface winds along the East Coast. To the west, a large upper trough will impact the Pacific Coast states, with a strong midlevel jet nosing into northern then central CA. Cold air aloft may support scattered low-topped convection, primarily along the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Strongly veering profiles with height and weak instability with cold temperatures aloft could favor very small hail and convectively enhanced, subsevere gusts. ....Southeast... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing over the northern Gulf Coast, just north of the surface dewpoint gradient which may be just offshore. Southwest winds around 40 kt at 850 mb will aid moisture transport over the region, and increasing southeast winds may help a secondary plume of moisture to develop toward SC. In both areas, poor lapse rates are forecast as moisture returns atop the existing cool air mass. Clusters of stronger storms may linger over southern LA and MS early in the day, and perhaps near or just off the SC Coast, perhaps with locally gusty outflow or very small hail, but severe storms appear unlikely. ...Jewell/Weinman.. 03/01/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .