Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 29 2024 19:45:48

ACUS01 KWNS 291945
SWODY1
SPC AC 291944

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Valid 292000Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....20Z Update...

....Central/East TX/Arklatex into the Lower MS Valley...
Isolated thunderstorms have recently developed over central TX and
the general expectation is for gradually increasing thunderstorm
coverage as the shortwave trough continues eastward this evening and
overnight. Stable conditions will persist at the surface, but there
is expected to be enough elevated buoyancy for a few stronger
updrafts, particularly from central East TX into central and
southern LA. Some small hail could occur within these stronger
updrafts, but overall coverage is forecast to remain low.

...Mosier.. 02/29/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024/

....Northwest States...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight in
vicinity of the Pacific Northwest coast, and along a cold front
moving across ID.  Activity is expected to be low-topped and weak.

....ArkLaTex Region...
A southern-stream shortwave trough over NM will continue tracking
eastward, enhancing low-level warm advection across areas from TX/OK
eastward into the lower MS valley.  Forecast soundings suggest weak
but sufficient CAPE for isolated thunderstorms across the region
through tonight.  Some small hail is possible over east TX and
southern LA late tonight, but no severe storms are currently
anticipated.

$$

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