Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 29 2024 17:25:49 ACUS02 KWNS 291725 SWODY2 SPC AC 291723 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ....Synopsis... A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to progress from the Mid/Lower MS Valley eastward/northeastward across the OH and TN Valleys on Friday. A relatively cool and dry continental air mass will be in place across the eastern CONUS ahead of this wave, with little low-level air mass modification anticipated throughout the day. Even so, moderate mid-level moisture will accompany the shortwave, contributing to enough elevated buoyancy to support thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing over the Lower MS Valley early Friday morning, and are expected to gradually progress eastward in tandem with the shortwave throughout the day. Late afternoon development is also expected ahead of the shortwave in the eastern GA and SC vicinity, supported by persistent warm-air advection. There is low chance that the warm sector may move inland over portion of the SC coast. Poor lapse rates will limit buoyancy, but strong kinematics could support a strong storm or two. Overall probability of severe is currently expected to remain lower than thresholds needed to delineate any areas. Farther west, upper troughing is expected to continue deepening across the western CONUS, with strong westerlies/southwesterlies persisting from West Coast through the Great Basin and northern Rockies. This westerly/southwesterly flow will help maintain mid-level moisture across the region while temperature continue to cool aloft. Early Friday, overall thermodynamic conditions appear most favorable for isolated thunderstorms along the Pacific Northwest coast. Conditions are expected to become gradually more supportive further south into northern CA as temperatures continue to cool and large-scale ascent attendant to an approaching embedded shortwave increases. ...Mosier.. 02/29/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .