Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 29 2024 12:59:58

ACUS01 KWNS 291259
SWODY1
SPC AC 291258

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 AM CST Thu Feb 29 2024

Valid 291300Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Synopsis...
A negatively tilted upper trough -- extending from James Bay to
southern New England this morning -- will continue to pivot
northeastward across New England through the day, and into the
Canadian Maritimes overnight.  Meanwhile, a second upper short-wave
trough, embedded within cyclonic flow around a Gulf of Alaska
cyclone, will shift inland/across the Pacific Northwest.  In between
the two troughs, weak ridging will prevail, though a smaller-scale
southern-stream trough will continue undercutting the
northern-stream ridge, crossing the south-central U.S. through the
period.

At the surface, high pressure will prevail over the eastern half of
the country in the wake of the prior cold-frontal passage.
Meanwhile, a cold front will advance southeastward across the
Northwest in conjunction with the aforementioned upper troughing.
Other features of note will be a lee trough over the high Plains,
and a warm front over the north-central states that will gradually
lift northward across the international border.

Thunderstorms will be possible along the West Coast today and
tonight, primarily in orographically favored areas of the Coast
Ranges of the Pacific Northwest, and secondarily across portions of
Idaho in the vicinity of the advancing cold front.  Weak instability
is anticipated, with shallow/low-topped convection the result.

Meanwhile, elevated thunderstorms based above 850mb are ongoing
across portions of western Texas and the Transpecos region, ahead of
the southern-stream vort max described earlier.  Showers and
embedded thunderstorms will spread eastward across the southern
Plains in advance of this feature, reaching as far east as
Mississippi/Louisiana late in the period.  While small hail will be
possible overnight from East Texas eastward, as more substantial
elevated CAPE evolves, severe risk appears likely to remain minimal
at best.

...Goss/Broyles.. 02/29/2024

$$

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