Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 29 2024 05:35:55

ACUS01 KWNS 290535
SWODY1
SPC AC 290534

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Valid 291200Z - 011200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A large negative-tilt upper trough will quickly move across the
Northeast today, with upper riding over the northern Plains.
Meanwhile, a southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the
southern Plains during the day, likely losing amplitude as it moves
across the lower MS Valley overnight. To the west, substantial
cooling aloft will occur over the Pacific Northwest as a strong
midlevel jet noses into northern CA.

In advance of the southern Plains trough, a cool air mass will exist
at the surface due to a strong surface high over land, and poor
trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico initially. Low-level winds will
veer to southerly overnight however, and robust moisture will return
northward across the Gulf of Mexico. Through 12Z Friday, it appears
only elevated instability will be present over land, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms most likely tonight from eastern TX into
LA. Poor midlevel lapse rates will preclude any severe hail threat.

...Jewell/Lyons.. 02/29/2024

$$

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