Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Feb 28 2024 19:45:19 ACUS01 KWNS 281945 SWODY1 SPC AC 281943 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe wind gusts will be possible today from portions of the Northeast southward into the Mid-Atlantic Region, and portions of the Carolinas and Southeast. ....20Z Update... Recent surface analysis places a low over southern Quebec, with an extensive cold front extending south of this low into the central Appalachians and then back more southwestward into southern LA. Thunderstorms are ongoing along this front over portions of TN, GA, and AL. The lack of buoyancy is limiting storm depth and lightning production along much the front farther north from the central Appalachians into southern Quebec. The only exception is over western NY, where brief clearing allowed surface temperatures to climb into the upper 50s/low 60s, promoting minimal buoyancy. Damaging gusts will remain possible along the length of this front throughout the afternoon and evening, particularly in areas where deeper storm depth contributes to stronger, convectively augmented gusts. ...Mosier.. 02/28/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024/ ....Tennessee Valley/Appalachians... A well-organized northeast/southwest-oriented thunderstorm squall line continues to progress generally eastward across northern Alabama, eastern Tennessee as well as southeast Kentucky and southern West Virginia as of late morning, largely paralleling an eastward-moving cold front. Periodic strong or locally severe wind gusts will remain a possibility across a broad portion of the region today, but especially across the Tennessee Valley toward southern Appalachians where somewhat stronger heating and destabilization are expected coincident with the southern periphery of strong winds aloft and weak height falls. Farther north, showers and cloud cover will tend to remain prevalent across much of the pre-frontal warm sector across the Northeast, although some clearing/weak destabilization is possible later this afternoon immediately near the front currently across the Upper Ohio Valley. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .