Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Feb 28 2024 09:12:45 ACUS48 KWNS 280912 SWOD48 SPC AC 280911 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ....DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough is forecast to move east/northeast from the western U.S. on Day 4/Sat to the Upper Midwest by Day 6/Mon. As this occurs, a strong surface low will move across the northern Plains, with a trailing cold front extending from the upper Great Lakes south/southwest into the southern Plains by Day 6/Mon morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of this system will allow for modest airmass modification to the east of a dryline and ahead of the cold front across parts of the southern Plains to the MS Valley. However, deeper boundary-layer moisture is expected to remain displaced well to the south (mainly over the ArkLaTex region) of better vertical shear/large-scale ascent (overspreading the Mid-MO/to the Upper MS Valley) through Day 5/Sun. While some low-end severe potential may develop along the cold front from the Mid-MO Valley to the Upper MS Valley, poor boundary-layer moisture will likely limit a more widespread threat, precluding an outlook area at this time for Day 5/Sun. On Day 6/Mon, the surface cold front will continue to develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. Somewhat better Gulf moisture return may make it into the mid-South region, becoming more marginal with northward extent across the Mid-MS Valley vicinity. While some severe potential may develop, too much uncertainty regarding timing of moisture and the cold front, along with potential poor overlap of better shear and instability preclude introducing an outlook area at this time. Model spread increases by the end of the period and predictability is low. ...Leitman.. 02/28/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .