Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0171
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 28 2024 07:14:45

ACUS11 KWNS 280714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280713=20
MIZ000-280915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Areas affected...southeast Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26...

Valid 280713Z - 280915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of
southeast Lower Michigan over the next 1 to 2 hours. Additional
weather watch issuance will not be needed, but an extension in area
could be done if necessary.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Detroit shows a
disjointed line of strong to severe storms ongoing 30 to 40 statute
miles to the north of Detroit. The line of storms is being supported
by a subtle shortwave trough, and an associated vorticity max,
located over Lower Michigan evident on water vapor imagery. RAP
analysis data suggests the MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg, and WSR-88D
VWPs have 45 to 50 knots of 0-6 km shear. This should support
isolated supercells capable of producing wind damage and isolated
large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 may also
be sufficient for a brief tornado as well.

...Broyles/Goss.. 02/28/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6OesBcYyCPGPNMng98V7Y8flWTQ_3Y3c8HUkrOkQlLulmyufIWEaY00sSEPPpKiljbJaaj6JC=
Y-pTiS6tF6AUXoiGIk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...

LAT...LON   43288248 43438270 43398309 43268340 43098360 42868376
            42678383 42498386 42338381 42218354 42308305 42498260
            42888239 43288248=20


=3D =3D =3D
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