Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Feb 27 2024 17:31:09 ACUS02 KWNS 271731 SWODY2 SPC AC 271729 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE/EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging gusts from middle Tennessee/eastern Kentucky into the Northeast States on Wednesday. ....Synopsis... Expansive upper troughing is forecast to extend from far northwestern Ontario southward through the Upper Midwest, and then more southwestward into TX early Wednesday morning. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this upper trough, particularly within a jet streak characterized by 100+ kt flow at 500-mb. The upper troughing is expected to move quickly eastward across the eastern CONUS, becoming increasingly negatively titled with time. As it does, the jet streak will move eastward as well, spreading across the OH and TN Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday evening. By early Thursday, this negatively titled trough is expected to extend from the southern Hudson Bay to off the New England coast. Surface low associated with this upper trough is forecast to be over Lake Huron early Wednesday morning, with a cold front extending south-southwestward across eastern Lower MI continuing through western KY and the Mid-South into the TX Hill Country. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning of the period, some of which could be severe. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front as it pushes eastward throughout the day, although limited low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely lead to diminishing coverage and intensity over time. ....Upper/Middle OH Valley into Middle/Eastern TN... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing along and just ahead of the cold front from far southwest PA southwestward into Middle TN early Wednesday morning. This line is expected to have reached peak intensity prior to 12Z in the vicinity of the OH River (see Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details), limited by the reduction in overall buoyancy as it moves eastward. Even so, strongly forced character of this line could still result in convection deep enough to produce lightning. Additionally, strong low to mid-level flow will be in place, contributing to fast storm motion and the potential for convectively augmented damaging gusts at the surface. Main factor mitigating a potentially higher risk is the overall lack of buoyancy and expectation that much of the development will be quickly trending towards a more shallow convective character during the morning and afternoon. ....Upper OH Valley into Northeast... A narrow, strongly forced line of shallow convection appears probable along the front as it moves from central NY/PA Wednesday afternoon eastward/northeastward through New England by Wednesday night. Shallow nature of this convection should keep it free from abundant lightning, although isolated flashes are still possible. Wind fields are already expected to be quite strong, so any convective augmentation could lead to an increased chance for a damaging/severe gust. ...Mosier.. 02/27/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .