Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 27 2024 06:26:06

ACUS02 KWNS 270626
SWODY2
SPC AC 270624

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY MORNING...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of damaging
gusts Wednesday morning from eastern Kentucky into far southern Ohio
and West Virginia.

....Central Appalachians...

A narrow corridor of strongly forced convection will be ongoing
Wednesday morning along a cold front from central KY into southeast
OH. Strong vertical shear will be present, with a 50-60 kt
southwesterly 850 mb jet overspreading the region ahead of the main
upper trough over the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley. Modest midlevel
lapse rates will be in place, though boundary-layer dewpoints
generally in the 55-59 F range will largely limit stronger
surface-based instability. Still, around 150-400 J/kg MLCAPE is
forecast, supporting isolated thunderstorms along the strongly
forced line of convection. Background gradient winds will already be
strong in the vicinity of the front, but a few convectively enhanced
damaging gusts are possible for a few hours during the morning. More
focused large-scale ascent will lift northeast with time and
instability will generally wane with eastward extent as convection
develops eastward through the afternoon.

...Leitman.. 02/27/2024

$$

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