Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 27 2024 01:02:32

ACUS01 KWNS 270102
SWODY1
SPC AC 270100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated late-night hail is possible across parts of the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley.

....01z update...
Mid-level moistening is underway this evening as evidenced by 00z
RAOBS across the lower OH River Valley and southern Great Lakes.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible as moistening and continued
isentropic ascent remove elevated inhibition. Confidence remains low
on the coverage of storms, but robust elevated buoyancy (1000-2000
J/kg of MUCAPE) rooted about 850mb and 40-50 kt of effective shear
would support a conditional risk for elevated supercells. Updated
CAM guidance continues to indicate some potential for isolated
stronger storms in one or more clusters near the OH River from
8-12z. Given the risk for hail with any stronger storms able to
become established, the MRGL risk will be maintained, with no
modification, late tonight into early Tuesday.

....Southwest...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a subtle perturbation within the
amplified subtropical jet passing over parts of the Southwest. Weak
broad-scale ascent from this feature and diurnal heating has
resulted in scattered, low-topped convection with occasional
lightning. With generally below 250 J/kg of MUCAPE, updrafts are not
expected to be particularly strong or long lived. However, a few of
these storms may continue into the evening and early overnight hours
across eastern AZ and southwestern NM as ascent shifts eastward.
General thunder probabilities have been added, given the potential
for weak destabilization and continuation of sporadic lightning
downstream late this evening.

...Lyons.. 02/27/2024

$$

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