Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 26 2024 12:51:29

ACUS01 KWNS 261251
SWODY1
SPC AC 261250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF LOWER MICHIGAN...INDIANA...AND OHIO...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central
Great Lakes region.

....Synopsis...
A primarily zonal mid-level flow field in place across much of the
U.S. today will gradually amplify through tonight, as a trough digs
southeastward across the northwestern quarter of the country.

As this occurs, a cold front oriented east-northeast to
west-southwest is forecast to advance southeastward across the
northern half of the Intermountain West and, later, the northern
Plains through Tuesday morning.  Elsewhere, a rather nondescript
surface pattern will prevail.

....Parts of Indiana/Ohio/Lower Michigan...
As a lead/subtle mid-level short-wave trough shifts across the
Midwest tonight, some strengthening of a southwesterly low-level jet
is expected across this region.  Resulting quasi-geostrophic ascent
may support development of showers and isolated thunderstorms, atop
a stable lower troposphere where steep mid-level lapse rates may
support upwards of 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE through the cloud-bearing
layer.

With moderately strong mid-level west-southwesterly flow
accompanying the short-wave trough, shear sufficient for mid-level
updraft rotation is evident.  With that said, model guidance -- both
parameterized and convection-allowing -- in general indicates
minimal overall convective development, in part due to questions
regarding potential for ample moist advection/saturation above the
inversion so as to support deep convective development.  Still,
presuming a few deeper convective cells can become
organized/sustained tonight, severe-caliber hail would be possible.

...Goss/Broyles.. 02/26/2024

$$

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