Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 26 2024 08:48:57

ACUS48 KWNS 260848
SWOD48
SPC AC 260847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024

Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Severe potential will generally be low through Day 6/Sat. A weak
upper shortwave trough will move from the southern Plains through
the Southeast Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. However, boundary-layer moisture
will remain limited by initially strong surface high pressure behind
a cold frontal passage in the Day 3/Wed period.

On Day 6/Sat, an upper trough is forecast to dig across the western
U.S., emerging into the Plains on Day 7/Sun. As this occurs,
southerly low-level flow will develop over the Gulf of Mexico into
the Plains in response to a deepening lee cyclone. Low-level
moisture will increase across parts of the southern Plains into the
Mid-MS Valley through Day 8/Mon as a cold front sweeps eastward.
Some increase in severe potential could accompany this system Days
7-8/Sun-Mon from the southern Plains toward the MS Valley. However,
uncertainty remains regarding northward extent of quality moisture,
and in timing of both surface and upper level features. While
confidence currently is too low to include probabilities, they may
become necessary in subsequent outlooks.

...Leitman.. 02/26/2024

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