Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 26 2024 05:39:58

ACUS01 KWNS 260539
SWODY1
SPC AC 260538

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated late-night hail is possible across portions of the central
Great Lakes region.

....Central Great Lakes Region...

Strong northern-stream trough will dig southeast into the Great
Basin by the end of the period. This evolution will suppress the
height fields across most of the western US, and some coupling with
the southern branch should occur over the southern Rockies region by
27/12z. Several low-amplitude disturbances will eject northeast
within the southern current into the mid MS Valley region during the
overnight hours. One of these features is expected to encourage
significant strengthening of the LLJ across IN/lower MI by midnight.

Late this evening, PW values remain seasonally low across most of
the CONUS, with only a small region of near-1" values observed
across deep south TX. While significant moisture is not expected to
surge particularly fast toward high latitudes, sustained southerly
low-level flow will permit gradual moistening across the MS Valley,
and 1" PW values may approach central IN by midnight. Additionally,
very steep midlevel lapse rates will be noted as this moisture
advances north. Forecast soundings show substantial moistening at
850mb into this region which results in MUCAPE values exceeding 1500
J/kg where dew points are able to rise to near 8 C.

Scattered convection should develop in response to the approaching
disturbance and increasing LLJ, most likely after midnight. Some
organization appears possible given the shear, and perhaps a few
weak supercells may develop. If so, some risk for hail around 1"
appears possible with the strongest updrafts.

...Darrow/Lyons.. 02/26/2024

$$

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