Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 25 2024 15:40:32

FOUS30 KWBC 251540
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1039 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Feb 25 2024 - 12Z Mon Feb 26 2024

....16Z Update...

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 26 2024 - 12Z Tue Feb 27 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Taylor



Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 27 2024 - 12Z Wed Feb 28 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

....Ohio Valley...

A strong positively tiled mid-level trough is expected to sweep
across the Central U.S. Tuesday/Tuesday night with a potent area
of low pressure likely to intensify over the Great Lakes. A warm
front draped across the region will act as the focus for elevated
showers and thunderstorms as early as the afternoon hours, and
likely continue through the night as a very impressive low-level
jet ramps up where 850 mb winds reach 50+ kts. This warm/moist
airmass will spark scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms
along the advancing cold front Tuesday night through early
Wednesday morning. This system will have very strong dynamics and
an increasingly moist airmass which may be supportive for locally
heavy rainfall, particularly along the warm front where
training/repeating rounds of rainfall are more likely. The storm
motions are likely to be fast/progressive along and ahead of the
cold front but may contain intense/brief rain rates. While there
remains uncertainty in the placement/timing of the main features,
the setup certainly favors strong thunderstorms and with the PWs
increasing well above 1", some localized/isolated flooding issues
will be possible so a Marginal Risk was introduced this cycle for
portions of the Ohio Valley.

Taylor



Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_k8ayZXx-LfEICkJGCgHPvq7b5OX0lySSNnkQ9GyGqfP=
tnX0hPSHShQVosrPXcKWm6xlSdeOikqlxpr231fZcHp4LJ4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_k8ayZXx-LfEICkJGCgHPvq7b5OX0lySSNnkQ9GyGqfP=
tnX0hPSHShQVosrPXcKWm6xlSdeOikqlxpr231fZceh_u2U$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_k8ayZXx-LfEICkJGCgHPvq7b5OX0lySSNnkQ9GyGqfP=
tnX0hPSHShQVosrPXcKWm6xlSdeOikqlxpr231fZL7WrPXw$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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