Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Feb 24 2024 10:01:41 ACUS48 KWNS 241001 SWOD48 SPC AC 241000 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 031200Z ....DISCUSSION... ....Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the central U.S. on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves from the southern Plains into the mid Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection, ahead of a cold front, will likely take place from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. In spite of abundant cloud cover, some destabilization is forecast across the moist sector ahead of the front. The ECMWF has MLCAPE generally peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range along parts of the moist axis by afternoon. As thunderstorms develop ahead of the front during the late afternoon and early evening, a severe threat is expected from the Ozarks northward into the southern Great Lakes. Wind-damage, and perhaps a few tornadoes would be possible with supercells and/or the stronger bowing line segments. The front is timed to be in far western Kentucky and far northwest Tennessee by 12Z Wednesday. At that time, multiple line segments could be ongoing just ahead of the front. With the strong low-level flow in place, along with focused bands of large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper-level trough, the more organized line segments may be capable of producing wind damage. There is considerable uncertainty, mainly due to the timing of the threat near minimum heating. However, the potential severe threat appears great enough to warrant leaving a 15 percent contour in place for Wednesday/Day 5 from parts of northern Mississippi, northern Alabama northward to near the Ohio River. The threat ahead of the front is expected to decrease some during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow ahead of the front weakens somewhat. ....Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... On Thursday and Friday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians. Limited moisture return and weak instability ahead of the trough are negative factors concerning a severe threat. However, some potential for organized convection appears possible across the central Gulf Coast, along the northern edge of the moist sector. A potential for strong storms across parts of the Gulf Coast could continue into Saturday, along and near the northern edge of the moist sector. ...Broyles.. 02/24/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .