Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 24 2024 05:19:08

ACUS01 KWNS 240519
SWODY1
SPC AC 240517

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1117 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas
this afternoon.

....Carolinas...

Notable midlevel short-wave trough is currently located over
northern IL. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern
Appalachians by 18z, as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates across
western TN into northwest GA, then off the GA Coast by early
evening. Very cold midlevel temperatures will overspread the
southern Appalachians/Carolinas where 500mb values will approach
-30C. This will contribute to steep surface-6km lapse rates (8 C/km)
within deep west-northwesterly flow regime. While surface dew points
will remain poor, along with seasonally low PW values, SBCAPE should
be on the order of 200 J/kg. This will be adequate for updrafts
capable of penetrating levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any
lightning should be affiliated with diurnally-enhanced convection.
Thunderstorms will quickly wane/migrate off the coast by early
evening.

...Darrow/Lyons.. 02/24/2024

$$

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