Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 23 2024 17:24:37 ACUS02 KWNS 231724 SWODY2 SPC AC 231722 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas Saturday afternoon, but the risk of severe weather currently appears negligible. ....Synopsis... A more prominent blocking regime is evolving across the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, with split belts of stronger westerlies becoming broadly confluent into/across the North American Pacific coast. Downstream, an initially amplified regime, including large-scale mid/upper troughing across much of eastern North America, may begin to slowly trend more zonal by the end of the period. While one vigorous embedded short wave impulse of Arctic origins turns eastward across the St. Lawrence Valley through the Canadian Maritimes, a couple of consolidating trailing perturbations (also emanating from the Arctic) are forecast to continue digging southeast of the lower Ohio Valley through the southern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity, before turning eastward into the Atlantic. Associated with these developments, in lower levels, models indicate that modifying Arctic air will be in the process of overspreading New England and northern Mid Atlantic coastal areas by daybreak Saturday, with a secondary surge overspreading the southern Appalachians and much of the Southeast Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This will be preceded by a more modest surface front, initially stalling across the Canadian Maritimes, while advancing southeast of the Florida Peninsula, and well away from much of the remainder of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by early Saturday. In the wake of this lead front, low-level drying appears likely to continue across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico into the Caribbean. Generally dry conditions likely will prevail across much of the remainder of the Gulf Basin, though models suggest that some boundary-layer modification/moistening may slowly commence in a narrow corridor near the Mexican/northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. ....Carolinas... While boundary-layer moisture content will remain relatively low, insolation likely will contribute to steep low-level lapse rates ahead of the reinforcing cold front, and beneath a cold mid-level environment across most areas south and east of the southern Appalachians by Saturday afternoon. As a 70-90 kt mid-level jet streak (associated with the approaching Arctic impulse) noses toward the southern Atlantic coast, models suggest that forcing for ascent and cold advection may contribute to 500 mb temperatures cooling to as low as -28 to -30 C across the Carolinas Saturday afternoon. It appears that this will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support low topped thunderstorm development, initiating over the higher terrain before spreading east-southeastward into the coastal plain by early Saturday evening. Based on forecasting soundings, the risk for severe weather appears low. However, it may not be entirely out of the question that stronger cells could produce small hail or graupel and perhaps scattered gusts up to around 30-40 kt. ...Kerr.. 02/23/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .