Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Feb 23 2024 05:43:32 ACUS01 KWNS 230543 SWODY1 SPC AC 230542 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC... ....SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North Carolina. ....Carolinas... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern CONUS through the day, as a strong upper-level jet (150 kt at 300 mb) intensifies near the base of the trough across the Southeast. A cold front initially draped from the central Appalachians southwestward to the FL Panhandle will move eastward through the day, as a surface low moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast and begins to deepen offshore by evening. Destabilization in advance of the cold front will generally be limited by early-day cloudiness/precipitation and modest low-level moisture. However, in the wake of morning convection, modest diurnal heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft will steepen lapse rates and allow for MLCAPE to potentially increase to around 500 J/kg. Thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon along/ahead of the cold front, with the greatest relative storm coverage expected from SC into southeast NC. While convection will likely remain rather low-topped, effective shear of 30-40 kt may support a few stronger cells and/or clusters, with an attendant threat of small to marginally severe hail and localized strong/damaging gusts. ...Dean/Lyons.. 02/23/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .