Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Feb 22 2024 05:16:54 ACUS01 KWNS 220516 SWODY1 SPC AC 220515 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-South to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today and tonight. A couple of strong storms may produce gusty winds or small hail, but overall severe potential appears low. ....Synopsis and Discussion... Initially quasi-zonal flow over the southern tier of the U.S. will become more amplified today/tonight as an upper trough over Canada digs southward near/east of the MS River. Shortwave impulses over the Ozark Plateau and OH Valley early this morning will support ongoing showers and thunderstorms over the Mid-MS/OH Valley vicinity early in the day. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure will extend from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower OH Valley by midday while a cold front shifts southeast with time. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow for minor increases in boundary-layer moisture, mainly across the Mid-South/TN Valley area through the afternoon/evening. Increasing large-scale and frontal forcing will support additional thunderstorm development from AR into western TN by early/mid-afternoon, shifting southeast toward northern MS and the TN Valley this evening into tonight. Limited boundary-layer moisture with northward extent across the Ohio Valley will temper the severe risk, though a couple of strong storms could produce gusty winds or small hail during through midday. Further south across AR/TN into MS/AL, MLCAPE will be tempered somewhat by pockets of drier air aloft (as noted in RAP/HRRR forecast soundings). Nevertheless, vertical shear will be somewhat favorable for at least briefly organized storm structures as initial cells become more linear with time/southeast extent under the influence of the advancing cold front during the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe potential is expected to remain low. ...Leitman.. 02/22/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .