Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 22 2024 00:44:28

ACUS01 KWNS 220044
SWODY1
SPC AC 220042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorm development is possible across parts
north-central Illinois into northwest Indiana, mainly after midnight
local time. Small hail will be possible with these storms, though a
couple instances of near 1-inch diameter hail may occur.

....Synopsis...

Modest low-level moistening continues on southerly flow/warm
advection ahead of a developing southern Plains surface low.
However, forecast soundings from RAP/NAM/HRRR continue to indicate a
dry layer from around 925 mb through 550 mb through much of the
remainder of the forecast period. This dry area is also evident in
recent water vapor imagery. It is also noted that the more
moist/cooler aloft version of the NAM appears to be too moist/cool
compared to 00z RAOBs. This dry layer will largely limit MLCAPE.
While steep midlevel lapse rates and increasing ascent from an
approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough are expected overnight,
thermodynamics likely will not support strong/sustained updrafts
supporting severe hail production. While isolated thunderstorms are
possible, severe potential appears very low and probabilities have
been removed from the southwest MO vicinity.

Further northeast, forecast and 00z observed RAOBS indicated better
midlevel moisture coincident with modest elevated instability and at
least weak vertical shear. Elevated thunderstorm development driven
by increasing ascent and persistent warm advection are expected
after 06z. Isolated small hail, with a few stones approaching 1-inch
in diameter, will be possible with this activity into early Thursday
morning from north-central IL into northwest IN.

...Leitman.. 02/22/2024

$$

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