Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 21 2024 15:56:06

FOUS30 KWBC 211556
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1055 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Feb 21 2024 - 12Z Thu Feb 22 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

....Southern California...
The passage of a mid-level shortwave across southern California
near 12Z this morning has lowered IVT values below 250 kg/m/s into
the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges. While weak instability and
low level onshore flow will likely continue to promote occasional
showers tracking from west to east into far southern California
and the Peninsular Ranges into the afternoon, the threat for flash
flooding has fallen below the 5 percent threshold and the Marginal
Risk has been removed with this update.

Otto


Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 22 2024 - 12Z Fri Feb 23 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

The environment will be conducive for more efficient rainfall rates
to develop during the morning and afternoon convection pattern
evolving
with the approach of a progressive mid-level shortwave. Model
consensus
depict areal averages up to 1.5 inches across the Ohio Valley with
hourly
rainfall rates approaching 0.5-1 inch/hour, which nears the lower
threshold
of the 1 hr flash flood guidance in the Ohio Valley. A Marginal
Risk for
excessive rainfall remains in effect for the region given the
elevated threat
for flooding concerns.

Campbell




Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 23 2024 - 12Z Sat Feb 24 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_uLVawuE5UeGtgSZiNVihAA4AUrtKE08fRhY86jKy8n3=
gfKpmAfbFJ8lRzVn5FsHc3Fo871F2O4KEOUZc7Brc-hdZxM$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_uLVawuE5UeGtgSZiNVihAA4AUrtKE08fRhY86jKy8n3=
gfKpmAfbFJ8lRzVn5FsHc3Fo871F2O4KEOUZc7BrDnilOps$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_uLVawuE5UeGtgSZiNVihAA4AUrtKE08fRhY86jKy8n3=
gfKpmAfbFJ8lRzVn5FsHc3Fo871F2O4KEOUZc7BrUStsY_M$=20


$$



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