Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Feb 21 2024 09:21:16

ACUS48 KWNS 210921
SWOD48
SPC AC 210919

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CST Wed Feb 21 2024

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

....DISCUSSION...
The upper-air pattern will be hostile to severe-thunderstorm
development through at least Sunday with gradually increasing
potential for thunderstorms by Monday over the central U.S.  Of
particular interest will be the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, as
models continue to indicate a powerful mid-level trough over the
West ejecting into the central U.S. on Tuesday and into the OH
Valley/South on Wednesday.  Model run-to-run variability remains
large but a couple of days of northward moisture return into the
southern Great Plains/MS Valley will conditionally favor potential
for severe thunderstorms.  If additional model runs exhibit
consistency in the timing and general placement of the ejecting
trough over the next day, this will likely prompt consideration for
a severe-weather spatial highlight on Tuesday from the northeast
TX-OK vicinity northeastward into the lower MO Valley.  Additional
severe potential may extend from the lower MS Valley/South northward
into the Mid South and potentially OH Valley on Wednesday.

...Smith.. 02/21/2024

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