Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Feb 21 2024 05:53:44 ACUS01 KWNS 210553 SWODY1 SPC AC 210551 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... ....SUMMARY... Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early Thursday, with some risk for severe hail. ....Synopsis... 05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off the southern California coast. This feature is expected to accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture, overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms late tonight into early Thursday morning. ....Ozark Plateau and central Illinois... 05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN, but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation. ...Moore.. 02/21/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .