Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 20 2024 19:53:36

ACUS01 KWNS 201953
SWODY1
SPC AC 201951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Beneath cold mid-level air which continues to spread inland of the
Pacific coast, insolation is contributing to pockets of weak
boundary-layer destabilization across coastal into interior central
California, and portions of the Great Basin into northern Rockies.
It still appears that this will lead to isolated to widely scattered
weak thunderstorm development by late afternoon, which may persist
into early evening before waning.

Thereafter, one significant mid-level cold core within the
large-scale troughing is still forecast to approach southern
California and adjacent northern Baja coastal areas late tonight.
This will be accompanied by potential for additional weak
thunderstorm development, which could linger beyond 12Z Wednesday.

...Kerr.. 02/20/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024/

...Western States...
A large upper low remains off the Pacific Northwest coast with a
series of smaller shortwave troughs rotating inland through the
forecast period.  This will lead to occasional clusters of showers
and isolated thunderstorms over parts of CA, and inland into
portions of OR/ID and NV/UT/AZ.  Overall coverage of thunderstorms
should remain quite sparse.

$$

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