Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Feb 20 2024 12:34:05

ACUS01 KWNS 201234
SWODY1
SPC AC 201232

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2024

Valid 201300Z - 211200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight.

....Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive trough-ridge-trough pattern will characterize
mid/upper levels through the period.  The eastern synoptic trough
will move offshore to the Atlantic overnight, after consolidating
from shortwave troughs now over the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley
region, eastern NC and the FL Peninsula and vicinity.  A low-
amplitude synoptic ridge, with broadly anticyclonic bracketing flow,
will cross the central CONUS.

A well-developed synoptic trough was evident in moisture-channel
imagery off the West Coast, with embedded cyclone center about 150
nm west-southwest of OTH.  A basal shortwave trough was readily
apparent well west of southern CA and Baja, between 27N-35N,
approaching 130W.  As the cyclone weakens and shifts north-
northeastward toward the AST/HQM area by the end of the period, the
basal trough should weaken slightly and move eastward to a position
just offshore from southern CA and northern Baja.  A series of
small/low-amplitude shortwaves and vorticity lobes will traverse the
southwest flow preceding the northeastern Pacific trough,
contributing to cooling aloft and modest low/middle-level moistening
over portions of the interior West, as well as atop the marine air
mass near the coast.  Associated 100-500 J/kg MUCAPE (greatest near
the coast) will support episodic thunder potential, mainly over the
outlook areas, though very isolated flashes cannot be ruled out over
much of the area west of the Rockies.  The combined shear/
instability parameter space should be too weak to support severe
potential.

...Edwards/Mosier.. 02/20/2024

$$

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