Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Feb 20 2024 05:53:33 ACUS01 KWNS 200553 SWODY1 SPC AC 200552 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ....Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential over the CONUS will remain focused across the Western states for today/tonight. 05 UTC water-vapor imagery reveals an upper trough just off the West Coast with two more prominent vorticity maxima evident off the OR and southern CA coasts. The occluding northern cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate north as the southern shortwave drifts east towards SoCAL within a belt of stronger mid/upper-level flow. Cool mid-level temperatures were sampled by 00 UTC soundings at OAK and VGB with colder temperatures likely offshore closer to the main trough axis based on satellite imagery and upper-air analyses. These cool mid-level temperatures will gradually spread east through the day and should promote marginal, but adequate, buoyancy for convection amid modest diurnal warming. As with yesterday/Monday, isolated to scattered shallow convection is anticipated; however, unlike Monday, kinematic fields co-located with surface-based buoyancy are expected to be modest given the overall weakening of the synoptic wave. Consequently, the potential for organized convection should be lower, negating the need for risk probabilities. ...Moore.. 02/20/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .