Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Feb 19 2024 17:18:58 ACUS02 KWNS 191718 SWODY2 SPC AC 191717 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather. ....Discussion... Models indicate that an initially broad and deep cyclone will undergo substantive further weakening later today through late Tuesday night, while migrating northward offshore of the Pacific coast, toward the Vancouver Island/coastal Washington vicinity. Upstream, a significant short wave trough is forecast to gradually split to the southeast of the Aleutians, with the more vigorous southern perturbation beginning to dig through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific. As this occurs, a weak downstream mid-level high may attempt to form near the northern British Columbia coast, while remnant mid-level troughing in the branch of westerlies across the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes begins to progress inland of the Pacific coast. Farther east, large-scale mid-level ridging appears likely to shift across and east of the southern Rockies and northern Mexican plateau, while downstream troughing shifts offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard. This regime may undergo some further amplification, with perhaps renewed surface cyclogenesis commencing across the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the period. Low-level cooling and drying in the wake of the lead mid-level troughing has stabilized much of the Gulf of Mexico. While models do suggest that modest modification may commence in at least a narrow corridor across the western Gulf of Mexico into northwestern Gulf coastal areas, it appears that the moistening boundary-layer will remain shallow, and strongly capped by warm eastward advecting lower/mid-tropospheric air. Across the Pacific coast into the Great Basin, ongoing low/mid-level moistening, coupled with continuing cooling aloft through the day Tuesday, may contribute to sufficient destabilization with daytime heating to support widely scattered convection capable of producing lightning. However, latest model output generally suggests that the higher probabilities for thunderstorm development will be focused near the mid-level cold core offshore the southern California/northern Baja coast, before approaching coastal areas late Tuesday night. ...Kerr.. 02/19/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .