Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Feb 19 2024 08:41:55

ACUS03 KWNS 190841
SWODY3
SPC AC 190840

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OZARKS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms potentially capable of severe hail are
possible Wednesday night over the Ozarks.

....Synopsis...
A potent mid-level trough initially west of Baja California will
quickly move east reaching OK/TX by early Thursday morning.  A
cyclone is forecast to develop over the south-central High Plains by
early evening and move across northern OK overnight Wednesday.
Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across the southern Great
Plains during the day with the initial stage of moisture return into
the south-central U.S.

....Ozarks vicinity...
An intensifying southern Great Plains LLJ Wednesday evening will
favor strong low-level warm air advection/isentropic lift over
eastern OK/AR northward into KS/MO.  An EML is forecast to
overspread the OK/TX into the Ozarks during the day with a plume of
8 deg C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates.  Cold temperatures in the mid
levels (-20 to -22 deg C at 500 mb) over the Ozarks coupled with
lower 50s dewpoints spreading into the area, will yield 500-1000
J/kg MUCAPE.  Isolated to scattered storms will probably develop
within the warm conveyer east of the cyclone, on the periphery of
the stronger capping inversion (04-12z).  Model forecast soundings
suggest potential for severe hail with the stronger storms that
manage to develop.

...Smith.. 02/19/2024

$$

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