Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0153
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 18 2024 23:02:18

ACUS11 KWNS 182302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182301=20
NYZ000-190300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

Areas affected...Northern New York

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 182301Z - 190300Z

SUMMARY...Periodic snow squalls will be possible in the coming hours
as a cold front approaches northern New York.

DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar composites and surface
observations show a persistent snow band moving east across
southeast Ontario. This band is primarily being driven by ascent
along a cold front - likely through a shallow layer from the surface
to around 700 mb where lapse rates are on the order of 7 C/km based
on recent RAP mesoanalyses and forecast soundings. The snow
band/cold front is expected to continue to push east into upstate NY
within the next few hours. The combination of persistent frontal
ascent, steep low-level lapse rates, and 25-30 mph wind gusts (which
have been observed across southeast Ontario with the passage of the
band/front) suggests snow squall conditions will be possible. Snow
squall potential will likely be greatest along the eastern shores of
Lake Ontario with diminishing confidence in snow squall potential
with east/southeastern extent as low-level lapse rates begin to
diminish due to the onset of nocturnal cooling.

...Moore.. 02/18/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5aplXT2Z5Rwd0yjg-hVy-aoweoZVovnxe1VGYS3v3KBo2_VaQC7thMAcIap0q7EcMPFwD69NT=
-HESLKb4ojiWSp6nJo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42747618 42677673 42737739 43037864 43187890 43357895
            43527872 43507764 43587718 43747689 44307641 44787553
            44977489 44977457 44757421 44577407 44287405 43117527
            42887565 42747618=20


=3D =3D =3D
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