Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 18 2024 19:59:47

ACUS01 KWNS 181959
SWODY1
SPC AC 181958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2024

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal
wind/tornado threat, remain possible across part of south Florida
and the Keys for the next few hours.

....20Z Update...
A QLCS continues to progress across the southern FL Peninsula as
well as portions of the FL Keys. Regional radar data shows
occasional bouts of focused low-level rotation associated with
line-embedded mesovortices. With 500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 50+ kt effective
bulk shear vectors aligned normal to the QLCS line, and over 200
m2/s2 effective SRH present over the Keys and southernmost tip of
the FL Peninsula, a couple damaging gusts or a brief tornado remain
possible until the QLCS moves offshore over the next couple of
hours.

...Squitieri.. 02/18/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2024/

....South Florida...
Current radar imagery shows a line of thunderstorms approaching the
lower FL Keys.  This line has multiple embedded weak circulations,
which should continue through the day as it tracks
east-northeastward at 25 knots.  Meanwhile, a surface boundary
extends across the southern tip of FL and Keys, which should provide
some enhancement to low-level shear and convergence.  Despite the
very small areal nature of the risk, there is some potential for a
tornado or damaging winds as these storms track across parts of
Monroe, Miami-Dade, and Broward counties FL this afternoon from
18-21z.  Please refer to SPC Mesoscale Discussion #151 for further
details.

$$

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