Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Feb 18 2024 06:01:13

ACUS01 KWNS 180601
SWODY1
SPC AC 180559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with a marginal
wind/tornado threat, will be possible across parts of south Florida
today.

....South Florida...
A shortwave trough will move into the lower Mississippi Valley
today, with west-southwesterly mid-level flow located across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida. At the surface, a cold front
will likely remain quasi-stationary across south Florida. To the
south of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower 70s F. As
surface temperatures warm across the moist airmass, MLCAPE is
forecast to approach 500 J/kg across parts of south Florida. As
instability increases during the day, thunderstorm development is
expected near and to the south of the front over parts of south
Florida. In addition to the instability, RAP forecast soundings
within the moist airmass in the vicinity of Miami between 18Z and
21Z have 0-6 km shear around 60 knots, with 0-3 storm-relative
helicity near 250 m2/s2. The amount of shear will support storm
rotation with cells that are near the strong instability in the
early to mid afternoon. If a few rotating storms can develop, then a
marginal wind damage/tornado threat will be possible.

...Broyles/Moore.. 02/18/2024

$$

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