Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 17 2024 08:28:16

FOUS30 KWBC 170828
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EST Sat Feb 17 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 17 2024 - 12Z Sun Feb 18 2024

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...

No major changes to the previous forecast issuance of the Slight
and Marginal risk areas in CA. The forecast generally remains on
track with an atmospheric river expected to bring moderate to
heavy rainfall to portions of central and northern CA today. A
steady rain will overspread northern CA this morning, although
initially the IVT axis is not all that impressive...weakening as
it tries to get inland and oriented in a less favorable
south/north way. So initially rainfall rates will be relatively
low, although the persistent nature of the rainfall will still
gradually increase rain totals. By ~18z a stronger shortwave will
begin to approach the coast, helping increase forcing and finally
push the front and IVT axis inland and off to the southeast. This
shortwave will also steepen lapse rates and allow for some weak
instability to work into the front...thus expect we will see some
0.5"/hr rainfall after 18z along portions of the central and
northern CA coast between San Francisco and Eureka. A Slight risk
remains for this area, with the 00 HREF supporting 1-3" across
this corridor, with totals locally exceeding 3" within the favored
terrain. Overall this is not expected to result in considerable or
widespread flooding, but as the higher rates move onshore some
localized flooding issues could arise.

Chenard


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4tE9VRvVfNJ7865UdsXKluCQH5IU6vA-gOiV4MpH9ME3=
ucbEdgySQujb_ob88rcmJIc7Nev0ml6kTiIck9GmhodqHMo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4tE9VRvVfNJ7865UdsXKluCQH5IU6vA-gOiV4MpH9ME3=
ucbEdgySQujb_ob88rcmJIc7Nev0ml6kTiIck9GmdavdaD4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4tE9VRvVfNJ7865UdsXKluCQH5IU6vA-gOiV4MpH9ME3=
ucbEdgySQujb_ob88rcmJIc7Nev0ml6kTiIck9GmSV2J68s$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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