Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 17 2024 08:27:06

ACUS03 KWNS 170826
SWODY3
SPC AC 170825

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF
THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA...

....SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms may develop across the
Central Valley of California on Monday.

....Central valleys of CA...
A mid- to upper-level low situated over the eastern Pacific to the
west of northern CA/OR will move little during the period.  A belt
of strong southwesterly flow will extend from the eastern Pacific
east-northeast to Sierra Nevada in association with a 160-kt 250-mb
jet.  Episodic showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move across
central/northern CA during the period.  Slight mid-level cooling is
forecast over central/northern CA during the day with 500-mb
temperatures decreasing into the -24 to -26 deg C range by late
afternoon.  Considerable cloud cover will inhibit appreciable
heating, but forecast high temperatures (slightly warmer than the
17/00z NAM guidance) into the upper 50s to lower-mid 60s will result
in weak destabilization.  Veering and strengthening flow with height
in the lowest 5-6 km will favor organized storm structures
contingent on adequately strong/sustained updraft development.
Current thinking is a couple of stronger updrafts may develop during
peak heating and mature into shallow/transient supercell structures.
A localized risk for a brief tornado and/or wind damage is possible.

Elsewhere, tranquil conditions will exist across a large part of the
CONUS from the Desert Southwest to the East Coast.

...Smith.. 02/17/2024

$$

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