Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Feb 17 2024 00:56:03

ACUS01 KWNS 170055
SWODY1
SPC AC 170054

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2024

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
No severe threat is expected over the continental U.S. through
tonight.

....DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over Ozarks,
with a plume of mid-level moisture extending from the southern
Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a cold
front is located from south-central Texas extending northeastward
into southeast Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley, where scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Thunderstorm development
will likely continue from the Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward
into the southern Appalachians, although a gradual decrease in
coverage is expected. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the
ongoing storms generally range from the mid 40s F in middle
Tennessee, to the upper 50s F in eastern Arkansas. Instability is
very weak, with the RAP showing MLCAPE at 200 J/kg or less.
Instability will continue to weaken this evening. For this reason,
no severe threat is expected for the remainder of this evening or in
the overnight period.

...Broyles.. 02/17/2024

$$

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