Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Feb 16 2024 16:26:01

ACUS01 KWNS 161625
SWODY1
SPC AC 161624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE....

....SUMMARY...
Isolated strong storms capable of hail are possible this afternoon
and early evening over parts of Arkansas and west Tennessee.

....AR/TN...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over
KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today.  A surface
low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward
today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front.  This
will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across
central AR into west/middle TN.  Forecast soundings in this zone
show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep
mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg.  This,
combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will
pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early
evening.  The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due
to weakening instability.

...Hart/Squitieri.. 02/16/2024

$$

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