Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0143
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 15 2024 08:01:11

ACUS11 KWNS 150801
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150800=20
MIZ000-WIZ000-151200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0143
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024

Areas affected...southeastern Wisconsin into parts of southwestern
and south central lower Michigan

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 150800Z - 151200Z

SUMMARY...A period of moderate to heavy snow appears likely to
overspread the remainder of southern Wisconsin into southern lower
Michigan through 6-8 AM EST, possibly including a brief burst of
very heavy snow rates around or in excess of 2 inches per hour.

DISCUSSION...Rapidly cooling cloud tops in a small cluster
overspreading southern Wisconsin appears aided by forcing for ascent
beneath a focused area of intensifying upper divergence, between
coupled upper jets propagating into and across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes vicinity.  This appears to coincide with a short-lived
period of strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis, which
is forecast to shift across the remainder of southern Wisconsin into
portions of southern lower Michigan through 11-13Z.=20

Although surface temperatures generally remain above freezing along
this corridor, the saturating column above is sub-freezing.=20
Forecast soundings indicate that temperatures around -15 C are
focused near the 600 mb level, where the environment is most
conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.  In response to a
period of strengthening lift within this layer, snow rates appear to
be increasing.  Based on latest model output, it appears that this
may include a couple hour period of hourly rates in excess of 1
inch, in the presence of precipitable water increasing to around .5
inches.  Latest Rapid Refresh output suggest that a brief burst of
2+ inch per hour rates might not be out of the question.

...Kerr.. 02/15/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!49d2fWQN3NPlBDXMSktijaYK-9dGmxMKWxc3WV8y8THgUjFh3xl8YFW9m_vGb8fO-s_IWfQt-=
XFJhOufBCJfGxdqeXg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...MKX...

LAT...LON   43548874 43578479 43018361 42278478 42488595 42618785
            42738894 43548874=20


=3D =3D =3D
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