Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Feb 15 2024 07:36:02

FOUS30 KWBC 150735
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Feb 15 2024 - 12Z Fri Feb 16 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Over south TX 1-3" of rain is expected today into tonight. HREF
neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 3" are as high as ~40%,
suggesting localized 3-5" totals are a possibility. However,
limited instability is expected to keep rainfall rates in
check...generally peaking at 1"/hr on a localized basis. Dry
antecedent conditions is resulting in high FFG over the
area...thus despite some of the high QPF coming out of various
HREF members...the probability of exceeding 1,3, or 6 hr FFG is 0%
in the 00z HREF. Thus while areas of heavy rain are probable, and
some localized ponding of water is possible...the chance of flash
flooding still appears to be below 5%. Thus will continue with no
risk area in the ERO.

Chenard


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 16 2024 - 12Z Sat Feb 17 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard

Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7V9dVmSaDWFmNQte0vhdiTFQG2pDNyj0SDgcYTgrghRu=
hYpXI1NYZG27a56545eKg6qCRI2g4G4z12MEaAxNBqBpyKw$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7V9dVmSaDWFmNQte0vhdiTFQG2pDNyj0SDgcYTgrghRu=
hYpXI1NYZG27a56545eKg6qCRI2g4G4z12MEaAxNPFeQBL0$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7V9dVmSaDWFmNQte0vhdiTFQG2pDNyj0SDgcYTgrghRu=
hYpXI1NYZG27a56545eKg6qCRI2g4G4z12MEaAxNOwpNo8E$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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